UFC 131: Carwin vs JDS

At UFC 131 Former Interim Heavyweight title holder Shane Carwin will face Junior Dos Santos, with the winner likely to receive a title fight against Current Heavyweight Champion Cain Velásquez.



Shane Carwin - Will be expected to weigh in at 265 pound at the weigh in

 

Junior Dos Santos - Will be expected to weigh in at 240 pound at the weigh in

Originally Junior Dos Santos was scheduled to face Brock Lesnar, but Brock was struck with illness and the replacement was Shane Carwin.

Junior Dos Santos made his UFC debut against Fabricio Wedrum, who is currently top 5 in the division, in a match that Junior was able to finish with a huge uppercut in the second minute. The fight made 2008's upset of the year.Junior walked into the bout with a 6-1 record. His one loss coming by submission, his 6 wins were all finishes in the first round. Nobody knew who Junior was but that uppercut finish made them start researching.

The Big time Uppercut

Shane Carwin also made his debut in 2008. He walked in to his fight with a record of 8-0 and was faced with a natural Light-heavyweight who Shane weighed in (252 llb) 22 pounds heavier than. Shane also came in with a record of only 1 of his 8 fights entering the second minute. Carwin finished his opponent on his UFC debut in 44 seconds with a perfect jab cross combo.

Both men had knock-out power, but Junior Dos Santos had a much higher calibre win.

Once again Shane Carwin found himself on the under-card in his next bout and like his last fight, he was the favourite. This proved again to be for a good reason. Shane weighed in this time at 264 but he cut the weight for the fight. In this fight we were shown and told that Shane was a NCAA Division II wrestle (a high level wrestler). Shane got on top of opponent, and pounded him, finishing the fight in under 2 minutes.

Junior's fast track to stardom continued after his upset of the year against a debuting big prospect, Stefan Streuve. And by big I mean in height. Stephan is 6'11 tall. However the reach and height didn't stop the hands of Junior Dos Santos, as he was able to put Stephan away in less than 1 minute.

After 2 fights what was known about the 2 fighters:

Nobody could handle the punching power of either man. Junior Dos Santos had quick boxing and very fast hands. Shane Carwin had great wrestling and heavy hands.

Shane Carwin then found himself at the co-main event against Gabriel Gonzaga a former title challenger. This time Carwin walked into the bout without being the favourite. The fight began and early on Gonzaga rocked Carwin, then took Carwin down. Carwins wrestling maybe was more overrated than people had predicted, however he was able to get back up pretty quickly. Gonzaga came at Carwin to strike with him. Carwin landed one right hand and Gonzaga was out cold. Carwin landed 4 punches in 1 minute 9 seconds and it finished the fight. He overcame the momentary rock and finished it quickly. Carwin was on fire. So hot in fact Carwin was given a title shot against the title holder at the time, Brock Lesnar.

All of Shanes 4 strikes

Junior however was trialled and tested some more, for whatever reasons.. Maybe he couldn't speak English so it was hard to promote/advertise him. Whether it was he was too one dimensional (could only strike) unlike Shane Carwin who was more developed, as he had his wrestling background. Junior was tested. In 2009 he fought former PRIDE World Grand Prix Open-Weight Champion and Kickboxing legend, Mirko Cro Cop, and stood toe to toe with him for 3 rounds (or 12 minutes) before Cro Cop was forced to quit due to a fractured orbital. He then stood toe to toe with another Kickboxer, Gilbert Yibel, and took 2 minutes to knock him out. If they wanted Junior to be less 'one dimensional' repeatedly matching him up with Strikers wasn't helping his case for a title shot. Then on March the 21st of 2010, Junior fought Gabriel Gonzaga. Like Carwin, Junior got taken down, but he too was able to get back up quickly. Junior fought the next few minutes giving a strike, taking a strike, which continued until Gonzaga's chin gave in to a big left hook and Junior rushed in and finished the fight in 4 minutes.



On March the 27th of 2010, 1 week later, Shane Carwin competed for the temporary Heavyweight interim championship. He was originally scheduled to fight Brock Lesnar in November 2009 but Brock fell ill. So instead Frank Mir and Shane Carwin squared off to determine the temporary heavyweight champion and Brock would face the winner. Shane had still never been out of the first round and now had a record of 11-0. Frank Mir entered the fight 13-4 as a former UFC Heavyweight champion and a former Interim Champion. However it was not Frank's night. Shane was able to press Frank against the cage using his wrestling, sheer strength and weight to clinch him. Carwin pressed Frank's chin up and uppercut him, until Frank fell to the ground covering up. Shane won the fight and took the vacant title in just less than 4 minutes.

Shane now had a UFC Record of 4-0 and held a UFC title. Junior held a record of 4-0 as well. Junior was still confused as to what he had to do.

At UFC 116 Brock Lesnar returned to merge the titles into the UFC Undisputed Heavweight title. And all of Shane Carwins weaknesses were exposed.

Both men on an average day walk around 280-300 pound, so both men had to shed and cut weight to make 265. Shane Carwin was not used to this whilst Brock had made a career out of it.

Shane Carwin hurt the champion, rocked him, had Brock back-peddling, then Shane took Brock down, and just pounded away at him. He put everything into trying to finish Brock, and arguably the referee could have stopped the fight, however Brock was able to just keep his guard up and pretty much just turtle up for about 90 seconds. However he had survived the onslaught. Carwin decided to back off and let Brock get back up. Carwin stood up and looked tired, weak and severely gassed. Brock saw this and simply avoided some slow powerless strikes and proceeded to push Carwin against the cage and put the round to a close. Carwin then walked into the second round the same as he ended the first: looking out of shape. Brock took Carwin down, passed Carwins guard and submitted him with an arm triangle choke; Carwin didn't even look like he tried to defend against it, tapping when it was in place.

The "poorly executed" 25 second Arm Triangle Choke in 10 seconds.

Carwin's weakness appeared to be his biggest problem: he had never gone out of the first round proving he had little or no stamina. Brock took the Undisputed Title and Carwin was just left reminiscing of the time he almost finished the champion.

1 week later, Junior however found himself in a bout over Roy Nelson. In a fight where Roy showed a lot of heart, Junior put Roy through a clinic. Roy isn't well known for superior wrestling or takedowns, and this didn't help: Junior was able to stop all takedowns and keep the fight on its feet. Junior had once again outclassed an opponent by striking with them. But at least he showed some takedown defence against a fighter with little takedown offence.

JDS putting on a Clinic against Roy Nelson all over the cage

So that's were there in fighting action finishes. Since both fights, Junior Dos Santos was scheduled to fight Brock Lesnar and to promote that fight, the opponents were matched up as opposing coaches on the Ultimate Fighter, the UFC's reality TV show. However after filming Brock suffered an illness, so Shane Carwin was put into replace him.

The Basic Overview of the fight:

Shane is 12-1 with a UFC Record of 4-1. Junior is 12-1 with a UFC Record of 6-0.

Shane Carwin has the wrestling advantage and in most cases, wrestlers beat strikers.

Both men's submission skills aren't known although it appears that Shane's are lacking and we have been told Junior has a Brown belt at Brazialian Jiu Jitsu, but these skills have never been showcassed or seen in the UFC.

Junior has the more technical striking advantage and has a solid chin.

Junior has a better conditioning and should be quicker.

Shane is more powerful and often 1 strike ends the fight. Junior set's up power punches with combo's.

Both men's weaknesses:

In the words of Forrest Griffin

“Junior Dos Santos is one of those guys we know F*** all about, all we know is he knocks people out”

Junior's grappling has yet to be on show and training out of the camp he does, their weaknesses appear to be wrestling. Junior's biggest weakness is that he likes to take a punch, as he gives a punch. Not counter striking. Just taking blow for a blow. His other issue is that his guard is not a guard. He doesn't use it to block punches, he uses it so the punches come from the chin, not the hip, less distance to cover, lands quicker.

Shane Carwin's only gone out the first round once, and his gas tank appeared empty. If he decided to out wrestle/grapple Junior, would he be able to do this round after round after round?

That sums up weighing up both fighters. The odds are on Junior to win and I agree. My prediction would be for Junior to fight tactical and not engage too much until Shane's tired in the later rounds then finish the fight.

My pick will be JDS to finish by TKO/KO late into the second round.

But should Shane Carwin come in with a wrestling focused gameplan, which I am not counting out, I could easily see Carwin ground and pounding Junior until he gets the finish.